Now, here are some thoughts about what I consider the best single day in all of sports. It is not as good a "weekend" as the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, and it is better than the Super Bowl as a single day because there are two games, and they seem to be better games. OK, here we go.....
1. Lets look at the NFC first. Now, I know it is the SEXY thing to totally discount the NFC when it comes to the Super Bowl, and that to me is a mistake, but that is a post for another day. As for this game, I must say, I almost feel bad for being a Bears fan in this game. It seems that if you are rooting against the Saints, and by that the city of New Orleans, then you are evil. Well, if that is the case, so be it. I make no apologies. I also make no apologies for the fact that I think that people are too hard on Rex Grossman. Has he had some terrible games, yes, no doubt. Has he had some great games, more than most. He was second in the NFL in games with a QB rating over 100, and had another 2 in the 90's. However, he was worst in the league in games with a QB rating under 30, including the 1.3 and the 0. Now, do I wish that he was more consistent? Of coarse I do. Do I think the Bears can win a Super Bowl this year with him as their QB? Yes I do, for this reason - defense and running games win Super Bowls. That is almost always the case. Rarely is the team that has the flashy passing attack in, let alone winning, the Super Bowl (just ask Peyton Manning).
The key to this game, and any Super Bowl they may play in, for the Bears is not Rex, it's the defense and the running game. To me, the best shot for the Bears to beat the Saints is to limit their possessions. I think the Saints are as close to an un-stoppable offense as there is in football. That being said, if the Bears can get 2 stops, and use their running game to keep the ball away from Drew Brees, they have a shot. If this game becomes a shoot out, the Bears are done. The Saints D is not very good. they are very similar to the Colts defense. They are built to play with a lead. they are a big play defense that struggles in grind-it-out type games. Again, this could work into the Bears favor. I would like to see a steady diet of Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson. If this happens, then the Bears could be boarding a plane for Miami.
Now, you ask, do I think they can do this? Honestly, I have no idea. My luck in sports tells me that no, they can't (you'll notice that staggering lack of titles by the teams that I root for). Looking at how the defense has played over the past month also makes me a little nervous. I still feel they are the best defense of the four teams left, but they have not played like the dominant defense they were earlier in the season. That being said, they made every key stop in the Seattle game that they needed to, and many of the injured players from the last month are back (with the notable exceptions of Tommie Harris and Mike Brown). The Saints have only played one other defense that is on the Bears level and that was the number 1 ranked Ravens, and Baltimore blew them out, in New Orleans. That is a positive sign for me. As for my pick, I'll give it at the end.
2. Now onto the other game with a team that i love. I hate echoing what the "experts" say, but it really does seem like the perfect storm for the Colts. They were the team that everyone kind of wrote off going into the playoffs, which seems to be the case when the great teams finally break through (St. Louis Cardinals, Miami Heat, Denver Broncos, etc.). They are incredibly hot defensively. They are playing at home, where they are undefeated. They will be able to play in front of their fans, on that fast track they play on, and in a controlled environment. This has to help them (even though it didn't against Pittsburgh last year). They have won 2 games going into this week, which gives them some nice momentum. Then there is the fact that they have actually, seemingly, killed the ghosts that are the Patriots. All these things seem to point to a win for Indy. Now, for my part, I am not totally convinced that the Colts have a better chance against NE then they would've against SD. Yes, they get this one at home, but there would've been very few weather issues in SD, they wouldn't have had to play against Belicheck and Brady, and they would've been going up against Marty Shottenheimer and a rookie QB. That all being said, this what we have, so lets look at it.
The Colts have won two playoff games basically with their running game and defense, only, or at least it would appear. I disagree with this view though. Yes, Peyton has not had a Peyton-esque playoff so far, but he has still made the plays he needed to. Many of his pics were either the same as punts on third and long, or made by Peyton's own personal demon Ty Law, or were due to a great play by a certain defender named Ed Reed. However, look at the plays he has made. He took them from their own 1 after the McNair INT and got a field goal. He led them on a 7:26 drive to finish the game and leave the Ravens with no hope. And on that drive he made a throw to Dallas Clark on third and 6 that only he can make, and it was when they were on the edge of Vinatieri's range. he made the plays that mattered when they had to be made, for the first time in his career. I really think he has turned the page. The rest of the team is more behind him then they have been in the past and he is not having to play the perfect game for them to win. I think that will continue this week. I think the Colts will turn Brady over a couple times, and I think Peyton will make the plays that are necessary. Will he have a huge game? Maybe, maybe not, but he will make the plays that are needed. I really think that this is the Colts time. Their window is closing and I think, behind closed doors, they know it. I think this is forcing them to play above themselves, and I think it will continue.
3. OK, now for my predictions. I think the Colts will win, but I think it will be a tough game. I think it will be very similar to the game earlier in the year in Foxboro. I think they'll win 24-20. In the NFC, I think, sadly, that the story of the year will continue. I think the Saints will win 27-20 and will be in control for most of the game. I really hope I am wrong. This sets up what could be the highest scoring Super Bowl ever with the 2 best offenses in football. So there you go, these are my thoughts.
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