OK, I am in a college basketball mood, but don't really have anything specific to talk about so I think I'll toss out some random thoughts, and some mid-season predicitons. I am rarely right with these things, but they are fun, so let's get to it.
Lets go with the biggie right out of the box. If I were going to pick a final 4 right now, this is how it would go:
1. Florida - I do not know how anyone can not pencil these guys into the final four. Not only are they the defending champs but they are currently number 1, they returned all five starters from last years championship team, they are dominating the SEC, and they seem to have a bit of a chip on their shoulders. My guess is that they are a little pissed that so many people picked North Carolina or Ohio State in their pre-season polls. I know how difficult it is to repeat, but a big part of that is that it is so rare that teams return much of their team, let alone the entire starting line-up. The nice thing about this team is that they are taking their frustrations out on their opponents. They killed a Tennessee team that beat them twice last year. They beat Ohio State and Greg Oden by 20 points, and they haven't lost since a close game in Lawrence, Kansas against the Jay Hawks. All in all, I think the Gators are the best team in the country, and they are my pick at this point.
2. North Carolina - This team is sick talented. They were awesome last year and they only lost one real contributor, David Noel. Then, they bring in the best recruiting class this side of Columbus, and here is the crazy thing, the vets and the rooks are playing well together. Tyler Hansbrough is still the team leader, but he has a lot of help. Senior wing Reyshawn Terry seems to be adjusting well to his new role as instant offense and leadership off the bench after finishing second on the team in scoring last year. An extremely talented trio of freshmen, Brandon Wright, Ty Lawson, and Wayne Ellington have played as advertised so far, and continue to get better every week. This team still runs up and down the floor, and coach Roy Williams seems to have them all buying into his defensive scheme. They are deep, talented, and should be very hard to beat come March.
3. Wisconsin - This team boasts the probable player of the year in Alando Tucker, a rotation of 4 players 6-10 or taller, and one of the best pure shooters in the conference in Chris Rock look alike Kammron Taylor. They play stifling defense, led by Big 10 defensive player of the year candidate Marcus Landry, and their flex offense is run as precisely as a Peyton Manning 80 yard touchdown drive. This team may not be as talented as many other but they are experienced, big, deep, and led by a senior who is determined to remind people that there is some good basketball played in the upper Mid-West.
4. Ohio State - Now, I will admit here that this is somewhat of a biased opinion from a transplanted Big 10 guy. Also, I haven't seen enough of UCLA to really know what they are. However, I do feel that Ohio State is one of the 4-5 best teams in the country, and should be even better in a month. Greg Oden seems to finally be growing into the gigantic expectations people had of him before the season. Also, veteran shooters Ron Lewis and Jamar Butler seem to be settling into the idea of having so much more talent around them than in years past. Freshmen phenoms Mike Conley, Jr. and Daequan Cook have been as good as advertised and the Buckeye bench is deep, talented, and adept on both ends of the floor. Coach Thad Mota likes to play an up tempo style that is fueled by their defense. With Oden inside blocking shots, and Conley causing havoc on the perimeter, they are very hard to score against.
Some other teams to keep an eye on are Texas A&M, Kansas, UCLA, Indiana, Southern Illinois and Marquette.
My mid-season All American team would be
G - Acie Law, Jr., Texas A&M - should be Big 12 player of the year, but it will probably be Kevin Durant. Law is leading the Aggies in scoring, is their best defender, and hits the big shots when they need to be hit.
G - AJ Graves, Butler - there is no way he'll be here nationally, but this is my blog, so I'll put him here. he's not the sexy pick, but all he has done is beat Indiana, Gonzaga and Tennessee on the way to the Pre-Season NIT title and MVP award. He's the leading scorer on one of the best stories in the country (ranked in the top 10 nationally when they were picked 6th in their conference).
F - Kevin Durant, Texas - what this freshman is doing is nothing short of ridiculous. He is averging 25 and 12 over all and a remarkable 31 and 13 in the Big 12. The only problem with Durant is that he doesn't seem to really be making his team much better. They are still losing many of these games when he has great numbers. Still an amazing talent though.
F - Alando Tucker, Wisconsin - He should win the national POY award, and probably will. He is a senior who is playing his best basketball this year. He is second in the Big 10 in scoring and leads his team in steals, rebounds and blocks while being the guy that other teams scheme against. Also, plays his best in their biggest games.
C - Tyler Hansborough, North Carolina - it wouldn't surprise me if Greg Oden is here when it is all said and done, and that isn't necessarily wrong, but I give the edge to Tyler. He is leading his team scoring and rebounding while taking about 6 fewer shots this year than last with the influx of young talent on the Heels. Also, like Tucker, seems to play his best when it matters the most.
We can't talk only about the great in this little blog. There are many teams out there that are not living up to their pre-season billing. Ironically, three of the bigger disappointments come from the SEC. They are LSU, Alabama, and Tennessee. LSU and Alabama were both pre-season top 10 while Tennessee was also ranked early on. Duke has also been a disappointment to many, but not me. I think they were ranked on their name, not on their actual roster. This team lost so much from last year that it is no real shock that they are struggling. What is a shock, although it probably shouldn't be, is that they are still ranked so high. Arizona, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Syracuse, and UConn are also teams that were ranked in the top 15 in the pre-season and currently find themselves on the outside looking in of the polls. Many of these teams will still make the dance, and their talent levels mean that they are still going to be tough outs, but people might have believed the hype a little too much early on.
Finally, I will leave you with how I think it will all play out, at least right now. I think that the four teams I mentioned above: Florida, UNC, Wisconsin, and Ohio State will meet in Atlanta. I think you will see a final match-up of Florida vs. Wisconsin and I think the Badgers will shock everyone and cut the nets down. I know earlier on I said that Florida was my pick, but again, I am a biased Big 10 homer, and I am a little drunk right now. But hey, I can dream, can't I?
Tuesday, February 6, 2007
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